Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Chartier on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Chartier wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Chartier 51.5% vs Aho 53.8% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 80.8%
Defensive zone
Chartier 66.5%
Neutral zone
Chartier 53.9%
Result
Rourke Chartier favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Chartier
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Chartier
Aho
Last 7: Chartier 4-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Chartier
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Chartier
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Chartier
3
1
Chartier
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Chartier
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (225)
51.2% (785)
+3.0%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
63.8% (213)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (67)
57.9% (57)
-14.6%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Chartier is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Chartier shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Chartier
Aho
Home
49.5% (202)
54.9% (548)
Away
57.4% (94)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Chartier
Aho
P1
51.6%
52.8%
P2
49.5%
58.9%
P3
54.6%
50.6%
Final 5 min
51.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Chartier
60.0%▲
50.5%
52.0%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:51 | Neutral | Rourke Chartier |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:05 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 05:49 | Neutral | Rourke Chartier |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:54 | Neutral | Rourke Chartier |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 2 | 01:09 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Rourke Chartier |