Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings). Carpenter wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.5% vs Hertl 54.3% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Carpenter leads 18-16 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 88.9%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 51.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 67.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 69.4%
30.6%
69.4%
Carpenter
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
16
(34 meetings)
18
16
Carpenter
Hertl
Last 10: Carpenter 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
10
Carpenter
Hertl
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
10
1
Carpenter
Hertl
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Carpenter
Hertl
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (2,027)
53.9% (8,303)
-4.3%
Power Play
41.5% (41)
59.2% (1,995)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (467)
46.3% (806)
-2.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Carpenter shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Hertl
Home
51.2% (1,290)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
45.5% (1,245)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Carpenter
Hertl
P1
49.6%
53.6%
P2
47.7%
54.2%
P3
48.0%
55.3%
OT
55.6%
46.9%
Final 5 min
49.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 13:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 06:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 10:31 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 3 | 09:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 13:24 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 17:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 04:53 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 04:47 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 06:09 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 03:06 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 04:00 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 18:48 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 13:39 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 13:34 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 2 | 13:46 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 3 | 07:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 3 | 07:14 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |