Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.3% vs Donato 47.1% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 95.4%
Defensive zone
Frost 82.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 92.8%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 90.5%
90.5%
9.5%
Frost
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Frost
Donato
Last 6: Frost 5-1 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Donato
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (745)
46.8% (297)
+9.0%
Power Play
60.5% (172)
41.0% (39)
+19.5%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
100.0% (1)
-11.1%
On power play, Frost has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Frost is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Frost shoots left. Donato is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (189).
Home / Away
Frost
Donato
Home
57.3% (497)
45.8% (142)
Away
56.6% (429)
46.7% (195)
By Period
Frost
Donato
P1
60.1%
49.5%
P2
56.0%
45.7%
P3
54.7%
43.4%
OT
63.6%
75.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
57.0%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 07:04 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 16:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:57 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 10:50 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |