Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Donato wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 47.1% vs Hertl 57.5% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 91.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 71.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 85.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 85.9%
14.1%
85.9%
Donato
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Donato
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
2
0
Donato
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (297)
58.7% (858)
-11.9%
Power Play
41.0% (39)
55.8% (285)
-14.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
62.9% (35)
+37.1%
On penalty kill, Donato has a +37.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Donato is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (189).
Donato shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Donato
Hertl
Home
45.8% (142)
60.1% (599)
Away
46.7% (195)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Donato
Hertl
P1
49.5%
52.4%
P2
45.7%
63.9%
P3
43.4%
58.5%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
46.3%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 04:29 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 11:02 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |