Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Donato wins 43.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 44.7% vs Johnston 49.0% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 71.5%
Defensive zone
Johnston 74.6%
Neutral zone
Johnston 52.7%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Donato
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Donato
Johnston
Last 8: Donato 4-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
4
2
Donato
Johnston
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Donato
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Donato
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
44.0% (1,218)
49.1% (2,232)
-5.1%
Power Play
46.0% (248)
52.5% (179)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (12)
44.7% (237)
-3.0%
On power play, Johnston has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Donato is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (569).
Donato shoots left. Johnston is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,999).
Home / Away
Donato
Johnston
Home
47.2% (743)
49.2% (1,332)
Away
41.4% (735)
48.7% (1,316)
By Period
Donato
Johnston
P1
43.8%
50.0%
P2
44.9%
48.1%
P3
43.7%
48.6%
OT
70.0%
51.5%
Final 5 min
47.3%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
44.3%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:14 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 06:55 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 05:46 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 04:20 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 04:04 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 02:04 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 16:40 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 13:11 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |