Scouting Report
Leo Carlsson holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Greene on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Greene shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Greene 43.9% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 70.1%
Defensive zone
Greene 63.2%
Neutral zone
Greene 51.2%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Carlsson
Greene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Carlsson
Greene
Last 6: Carlsson 4-2 Greene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
0
Carlsson
Greene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greene
1
2
Carlsson
Greene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Greene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Greene
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
43.6% (512)
+1.4%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
46.8% (62)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
40.1% (167)
-7.2%
On penalty kill, Greene has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greene shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Carlsson shoots left. Greene is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Greene
Home
42.5% (435)
47.4% (382)
Away
45.5% (429)
38.4% (359)
By Period
Carlsson
Greene
P1
45.3%
46.8%
P2
38.7%
37.6%
P3
48.5%
45.2%
OT
41.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
38.4%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Greene
26.0%▼
34.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:10 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 14:30 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 03:39 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |