Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Greene shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Greene 43.9% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greene 60.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 50.3%
Neutral zone
Greene 55.4%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Sturm
Greene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Sturm
Greene
Last 5: Sturm 2-3 Greene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greene
0
2
Sturm
Greene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Greene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Greene
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
43.6% (512)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
40.1% (167)
+14.3%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greene shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Sturm shoots left. Greene is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Sturm
Greene
Home
53.0% (168)
47.4% (382)
Away
56.0% (193)
38.4% (359)
By Period
Sturm
Greene
P1
58.2%
46.8%
P2
53.2%
37.6%
P3
52.3%
45.2%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Greene
26.0%▼
34.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:35 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 02:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |