Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Greene on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Greene wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greene 43.7% vs Hertl 54.3% (-11.5%)
H2H factor
Greene leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 96.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 76.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 86.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 82.2%
17.8%
82.2%
Greene
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Greene
Hertl
Last 10: Greene 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Greene
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greene
5
2
Greene
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greene
2
0
Greene
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greene
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (530)
53.9% (8,290)
-10.7%
Power Play
46.8% (62)
59.3% (1,991)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
40.1% (167)
46.3% (806)
-6.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Greene is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (565).
Greene shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Greene
Hertl
Home
47.4% (382)
55.8% (5,365)
Away
38.2% (377)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Greene
Hertl
P1
46.1%
53.6%
P2
37.6%
54.1%
P3
45.2%
55.3%
OT
50.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
41.7%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greene
26.0%▼
34.0%
42.8%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 01:12 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 12:47 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 08:22 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 15:15 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |