Scouting Report
Ryan Greene holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Greene wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greene 43.9% vs Novak 42.5% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 81.9%
Defensive zone
Greene 68.7%
Neutral zone
Novak 55.3%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Greene
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Greene
Novak
Last 6: Greene 1-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Greene
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Greene
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
3
Greene
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greene
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (512)
40.4% (408)
+3.2%
Power Play
46.8% (62)
45.5% (33)
+1.3%
On even strength, Greene has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Greene is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Greene shoots right. Novak is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Home / Away
Greene
Novak
Home
47.4% (382)
42.0% (212)
Away
38.4% (359)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Greene
Novak
P1
46.8%
41.9%
P2
37.6%
39.3%
P3
45.2%
42.1%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
42.1%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greene
26.0%▼
34.0%
43.0%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:31 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 10:20 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:17 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 12:40 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |