Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (42.8% vs 42.6%). Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Greene wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greene 43.7% vs Novak 43.0% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 82.4%
Defensive zone
Greene 68.2%
Neutral zone
Greene 54.1%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Greene
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Greene
Novak
Last 6: Greene 1-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Greene
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Greene
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
3
Greene
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greene
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (530)
41.8% (1,568)
+1.4%
Power Play
46.8% (62)
51.5% (134)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
40.1% (167)
50.0% (2)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Greene is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (565).
Greene shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
Greene
Novak
Home
47.4% (382)
45.1% (831)
Away
38.2% (377)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Greene
Novak
P1
46.1%
43.7%
P2
37.6%
42.8%
P3
45.2%
41.1%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
41.7%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greene
26.0%▼
34.0%
42.8%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:31 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 10:20 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:17 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 12:40 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |