Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.8% vs 45.2%). Look for Bedard on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.5% vs Hartman 45.6% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 52.3%
Defensive zone
Bedard 51.0%
Neutral zone
Hartman 52.6%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Bedard
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Bedard
Hartman
Last 9: Bedard 7-2 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
0
Bedard
Hartman
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
0
Bedard
Hartman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
2
Bedard
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (505)
45.1% (874)
-0.9%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
47.4% (95)
+19.3%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
37.5% (16)
+16.3%
On power play, Bedard has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Bedard is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Bedard shoots right. Hartman is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (294).
Home / Away
Bedard
Hartman
Home
50.7% (223)
45.0% (515)
Away
42.6% (331)
45.3% (470)
By Period
Bedard
Hartman
P1
40.2%
47.3%
P2
49.2%
40.1%
P3
47.2%
48.3%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.2%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 18:28 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 17:25 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 17, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 07:49 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:21 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 10:47 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 06:17 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |