Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.7% vs Hartman 45.6% (+12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 88.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 67.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 88.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 82.2%
82.2%
17.8%
Tavares
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tavares
Hartman
Last 7: Tavares 6-1 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Hartman
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Hartman
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (956)
45.1% (874)
+12.6%
Power Play
55.7% (244)
47.4% (95)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
37.5% (16)
+14.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. Hartman is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hartman
Home
57.4% (636)
45.0% (515)
Away
57.1% (587)
45.3% (470)
By Period
Tavares
Hartman
P1
57.1%
47.3%
P2
57.0%
40.1%
P3
57.6%
48.3%
OT
57.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 15:57 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 13:29 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 04:45 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 01:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 03:27 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |