Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.8% vs Hartman 45.6% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 67.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 87.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 60.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Dowd
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Dowd
Hartman
Last 10: Dowd 7-3 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Hartman
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
0
Dowd
Hartman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
3
Dowd
Hartman
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (666)
45.1% (874)
+6.1%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
47.4% (95)
-47.4%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
37.5% (16)
+4.0%
On power play, Hartman has a +47.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Dowd shoots right. Hartman is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (294).
Home / Away
Dowd
Hartman
Home
48.5% (466)
45.0% (515)
Away
48.8% (426)
45.3% (470)
By Period
Dowd
Hartman
P1
48.4%
47.3%
P2
46.8%
40.1%
P3
51.3%
48.3%
OT
30.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 16:05 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 12:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 08:46 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 03:35 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |