Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 44.6%). Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hartman wins 45.9% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 45.6% vs Thompson 45.2% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 54.9%
Defensive zone
Hartman 50.8%
Neutral zone
Thompson 54.3%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Hartman
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Hartman
Thompson
Last 9: Hartman 4-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Hartman
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hartman
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Hartman
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (874)
44.6% (661)
+0.5%
Power Play
47.4% (95)
48.4% (95)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
33.3% (33)
+4.2%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Hartman is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (294).
Hartman shoots right. Thompson is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (222).
Home / Away
Hartman
Thompson
Home
45.0% (515)
45.7% (411)
Away
45.3% (470)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Hartman
Thompson
P1
47.3%
47.7%
P2
40.1%
45.7%
P3
48.3%
40.5%
OT
50.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
44.2%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:12 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:09 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:19 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 17:51 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |