Scouting Report
Ryan Hartman holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hartman wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 45.6% vs Zegras 37.0% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 72.7%
Defensive zone
Hartman 94.3%
Neutral zone
Hartman 91.2%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 92.3%
92.3%
7.7%
Hartman
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Hartman
Zegras
Last 6: Hartman 6-0 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
2
0
Hartman
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
4
0
Hartman
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (874)
33.0% (264)
+12.1%
Power Play
47.4% (95)
32.1% (56)
+15.3%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
50.0% (2)
-12.5%
On power play, Hartman has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Hartman is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Hartman shoots right. Zegras is 33.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Hartman
Zegras
Home
45.0% (515)
35.3% (173)
Away
45.3% (470)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Hartman
Zegras
P1
47.3%
33.0%
P2
40.1%
35.7%
P3
48.3%
29.7%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.2%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 14:55 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:16 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |