Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 54.3%). Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 45 meetings). Johansen wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 53.3% vs Hertl 54.3% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 68-62 in 130 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 58.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 59.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 62.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 60.1%
39.9%
60.1%
Johansen
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
68
-
62
(130 meetings)
68
62
Johansen
Hertl
Last 10: Johansen 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
28
17
Johansen
Hertl
45 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
18
28
Johansen
Hertl
46 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
22
17
Johansen
Hertl
39 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (11,017)
53.9% (8,303)
-0.8%
Power Play
56.2% (2,163)
59.2% (1,995)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (978)
46.3% (806)
+4.2%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Johansen is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (9,788).
Johansen shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Johansen
Hertl
Home
55.0% (7,001)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
51.7% (7,158)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Johansen
Hertl
P1
53.2%
53.6%
P2
53.9%
54.2%
P3
52.8%
55.3%
OT
58.2%
46.9%
Final 5 min
52.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 18:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 16:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 13:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 3 | 13:32 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 17:51 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 17:46 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 05:45 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 05:27 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 15:37 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 14:10 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 18:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 2 | 12:40 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 2 | 03:48 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |