Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Kesler wins 55.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 55.9% vs Stamkos 51.1% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 51.0%
Defensive zone
Kesler 82.7%
Neutral zone
Kesler 77.6%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 68.6%
68.6%
31.4%
Kesler
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
9
(22 meetings)
13
9
Kesler
Stamkos
Last 10: Kesler 8-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Kesler
Stamkos
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Kesler
Stamkos
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
6
2
Kesler
Stamkos
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (8,095)
50.5% (9,825)
+5.9%
Power Play
60.7% (1,437)
55.2% (1,729)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (1,908)
49.6% (827)
+0.9%
On even strength, Kesler has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kesler is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (3,497).
Kesler shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,601).
Home / Away
Kesler
Stamkos
Home
57.2% (5,732)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
54.7% (5,751)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Kesler
Stamkos
P1
56.5%
49.2%
P2
55.9%
52.7%
P3
56.1%
50.9%
OT
46.0%
54.3%
Final 5 min
56.9%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 03:44 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 2 | 18:51 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 04:13 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 2, 2015 | 3 | 19:56 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 2, 2015 | 2 | 14:54 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 2, 2015 | 2 | 14:47 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 3 | 13:12 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 2 | 07:21 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 2 | 01:12 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 1 | 03:56 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 18, 2015 | 2 | 17:06 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 3 | 06:14 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 3 | 02:42 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 2 | 17:09 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 1 | 06:38 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 11, 2010 | 3 | 16:19 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 11, 2010 | 2 | 02:28 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |