Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McMichael wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.9% vs McLeod 47.4% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
McMichael 68.0%
Defensive zone
McMichael 64.1%
Neutral zone
McMichael 67.9%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 66.8%
66.8%
33.2%
McMichael
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
McMichael
McLeod
Last 10: McMichael 1-9 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
3
McMichael
McLeod
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
McMichael
McLeod
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
4
McMichael
McLeod
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (408)
49.0% (827)
-6.1%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
44.0% (91)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (105)
43.0% (272)
-4.0%
On even strength, McLeod has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. McMichael is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (376).
McMichael shoots left. McLeod is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (775).
Home / Away
McMichael
McLeod
Home
43.0% (298)
48.5% (619)
Away
42.6% (270)
45.9% (571)
By Period
McMichael
McLeod
P1
46.6%
52.7%
P2
40.8%
43.9%
P3
41.8%
45.8%
Final 5 min
43.3%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:19 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 02:52 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 02:47 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 18:10 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 06:07 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:04 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |