Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.6% vs 47.2%). Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 48.1% vs McLeod 47.4% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Guentzel 71.4%
Defensive zone
McLeod 87.7%
Neutral zone
McLeod 55.8%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 64.7%
35.3%
64.7%
Guentzel
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Guentzel
McLeod
Last 10: Guentzel 2-8 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Guentzel
McLeod
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
6
Guentzel
McLeod
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Guentzel
McLeod
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (230)
49.0% (827)
+0.1%
Power Play
44.9% (118)
44.0% (91)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (26)
43.0% (272)
+3.2%
On penalty kill, Guentzel has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Guentzel is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Guentzel shoots left. McLeod is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (775).
Home / Away
Guentzel
McLeod
Home
50.2% (205)
48.5% (619)
Away
44.4% (169)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Guentzel
McLeod
P1
47.6%
52.7%
P2
49.0%
43.9%
P3
46.2%
45.8%
OT
42.9%
35.7%
Final 5 min
49.3%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
47.6%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:07 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:56 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 16:41 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 01:11 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:33 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:47 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:23 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:27 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 13:44 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:30 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |