Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Frost wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.3% vs McLeod 47.4% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 97.5%
Defensive zone
Frost 72.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 91.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 91.3%
91.3%
8.7%
Frost
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Frost
McLeod
Last 10: Frost 8-2 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
5
1
Frost
McLeod
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
McLeod
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (745)
49.0% (827)
+6.8%
Power Play
60.5% (172)
44.0% (91)
+16.5%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
43.0% (272)
+45.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +45.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Frost is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Frost shoots left. McLeod is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (775).
Home / Away
Frost
McLeod
Home
57.3% (497)
48.5% (619)
Away
56.6% (429)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Frost
McLeod
P1
60.1%
52.7%
P2
56.0%
43.9%
P3
54.7%
45.8%
OT
63.6%
35.7%
Final 5 min
52.0%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
57.0%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:53 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:44 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:32 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 19:07 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:50 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 18:49 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |