Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McLeod wins 45.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 47.4% vs Carrick 54.2% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 75.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 74.4%
Neutral zone
McLeod 71.8%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 74.2%
74.2%
25.8%
McLeod
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McLeod
Carrick
Last 7: McLeod 2-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
0
McLeod
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
4
McLeod
Carrick
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
McLeod
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (827)
55.5% (470)
-6.5%
Power Play
44.0% (91)
66.7% (3)
-22.7%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (272)
50.0% (58)
-7.0%
On power play, Carrick has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McLeod is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (415).
McLeod shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
McLeod
Carrick
Home
48.5% (619)
58.6% (261)
Away
45.9% (571)
51.5% (270)
By Period
McLeod
Carrick
P1
52.7%
55.9%
P2
43.9%
53.5%
P3
45.8%
55.6%
OT
35.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:20 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:06 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |