Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Sam Carrick
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Nugent-Hopkins wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% vs Carrick 54.2% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 80.0%
Defensive zone
Carrick 60.4%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 59.5%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (250)
55.5% (470)
-9.5%
Power Play
70.6% (17)
66.7% (3)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
31.8% (22)
50.0% (58)
-18.2%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
Home
50.3% (175)
58.6% (261)
Away
40.4% (114)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
P1
48.5%
55.9%
P2
45.9%
53.5%
P3
46.5%
55.6%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.7%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 17:39 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |