Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tage Thompson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 44.7% vs Thompson 42.8% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 62.8%
Defensive zone
Thompson 63.6%
Neutral zone
Thompson 63.7%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 63.1%
36.9%
63.1%
Nugent-Hopkins
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Nugent-Hopkins
Thompson
Last 6: Nugent-Hopkins 1-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Nugent-Hopkins
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (8,775)
42.9% (3,540)
+1.9%
Power Play
50.6% (844)
46.9% (373)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (880)
33.6% (265)
+4.2%
On penalty kill, Nugent-Hopkins has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (3,653).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Thompson is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,029).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Thompson
Home
46.5% (5,361)
44.8% (2,135)
Away
42.8% (5,150)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Thompson
P1
45.1%
44.4%
P2
43.9%
43.7%
P3
45.2%
40.0%
OT
43.2%
36.4%
Final 5 min
43.6%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
44.7%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 13:12 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 16:58 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 15:02 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 2 | 19:10 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |