Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Giroux on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Giroux wins 63.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Giroux 61.3% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Giroux 80.4%
Defensive zone
Giroux 87.8%
Neutral zone
Giroux 63.1%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 83.4%
83.4%
16.6%
Giroux
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Giroux
O'Reilly
Last 5: Giroux 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
2
1
Giroux
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
2
0
Giroux
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Giroux
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
61.0% (420)
55.7% (856)
+5.3%
Power Play
66.4% (113)
57.5% (233)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
65.6% (163)
50.0% (144)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Giroux is 63.6% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Giroux shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Giroux
O'Reilly
Home
66.6% (350)
55.5% (616)
Away
59.2% (346)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Giroux
O'Reilly
P1
62.1%
58.1%
P2
64.7%
54.9%
P3
61.6%
53.9%
OT
69.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
61.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Giroux
70.0%▲
57.0%
62.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:30 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 05:27 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:52 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |