Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.1% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 85.7%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 70.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Last 8: Kastelic 3-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Kastelic
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
1
Kastelic
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Kastelic
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (362)
55.7% (856)
+5.1%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
57.5% (233)
+25.8%
Penalty Kill
56.2% (146)
50.0% (144)
+6.2%
On power play, Kastelic has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kastelic is 58.4% vs left-shot opponents (430).
Kastelic shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Kastelic
O'Reilly
Home
60.3% (242)
55.5% (616)
Away
59.2% (272)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Kastelic
O'Reilly
P1
58.9%
58.1%
P2
57.3%
54.9%
P3
64.0%
53.9%
OT
53.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
66.4%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 17:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 06:23 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 12:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 05:45 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 05:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 13:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |