Mitch Marner vs Ryan O'Reilly

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Marner wins 40.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Marner 43.0% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-14.6%)
H2H factor Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone Marner 57.3%
Defensive zone O'Reilly 51.4%
Neutral zone O'Reilly 50.1%
Result Mitch Marner favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Marner O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2 - 3 (5 meetings)
2
3
Marner O'Reilly
Last 5: Marner 2-3 O'Reilly

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Marner O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Marner O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Marner O'Reilly
1 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Marner
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (302)
55.7% (856)
-14.3%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
57.5% (233)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
50.0% (144)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +25.0% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Marner is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (234).
Marner shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Marner
O'Reilly
Home
36.6% (172)
55.5% (616)
Away
45.6% (147)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Marner
O'Reilly
P1
40.8%
58.1%
P2
40.5%
54.9%
P3
41.0%
53.9%
Final 5 min
39.6%
56.3%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
46.0%
42.5%
40.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%
55.0%
55.4%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 17, 2026 3 15:45 Offensive Mitch Marner
Jan 17, 2026 3 13:16 Neutral Ryan O'Reilly
Jan 17, 2026 3 06:31 Defensive Mitch Marner
Dec 31, 2025 3 03:30 Defensive Ryan O'Reilly
Dec 31, 2025 2 06:35 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly