Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Marner wins 40.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.0% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-14.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 57.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.1%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Marner
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Marner
O'Reilly
Last 5: Marner 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Marner
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Marner
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Marner
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (302)
55.7% (856)
-14.3%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
57.5% (233)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
50.0% (144)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Marner is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (234).
Marner shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Marner
O'Reilly
Home
36.6% (172)
55.5% (616)
Away
45.6% (147)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Marner
O'Reilly
P1
40.8%
58.1%
P2
40.5%
54.9%
P3
41.0%
53.9%
Final 5 min
39.6%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:30 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |