Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 31 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 42.6% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-13.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 55-21 in 76 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 93.3%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 93.8%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 97.6%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 94.8%
94.8%
5.2%
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
55
(76 meetings)
21
55
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Last 10: Schmaltz 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
10
12
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
28
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
15
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
41.3% (3,431)
56.2% (15,290)
-14.9%
Power Play
47.3% (655)
58.7% (3,457)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (135)
51.4% (2,826)
-4.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,049).
Schmaltz shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,705).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Home
42.8% (2,114)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
42.0% (2,107)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
P1
41.3%
55.6%
P2
42.8%
57.0%
P3
43.1%
55.0%
OT
42.4%
62.2%
Final 5 min
42.3%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
42.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 12:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 16:39 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 14:49 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 13:18 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 03:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 02:57 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:57 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 04:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 14:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:31 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 04:00 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 17:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 08:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |