Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.4% vs Reinhart 48.8% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Reinhart 50.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 66.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Last 5: O'Reilly 3-2 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
2
O'Reilly
Reinhart
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
0
O'Reilly
Reinhart
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (1,064)
48.0% (275)
+8.6%
Power Play
60.4% (260)
48.1% (52)
+12.3%
Penalty Kill
54.0% (261)
53.1% (32)
+0.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
O'Reilly shoots left. Reinhart is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Home
54.9% (801)
49.8% (201)
Away
58.7% (784)
46.8% (158)
By Period
O'Reilly
Reinhart
P1
58.0%
54.8%
P2
56.7%
40.5%
P3
55.4%
50.0%
OT
64.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.4%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.8%
Reinhart
46.0%▲
41.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2021 | 1 | 19:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 1 | 11:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 13:16 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 01:07 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |