Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.0% vs Steel 50.6% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 71.4%
Defensive zone
Steel 71.3%
Neutral zone
Steel 69.0%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 70.2%
29.8%
70.2%
O'Reilly
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
O'Reilly
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
O'Reilly
Steel
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
O'Reilly
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (856)
52.5% (200)
+3.2%
Power Play
57.5% (233)
71.4% (7)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (144)
40.0% (45)
+10.0%
On power play, Steel has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
O'Reilly shoots left. Steel is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Steel
Home
55.5% (616)
49.5% (109)
Away
55.3% (617)
51.7% (143)
By Period
O'Reilly
Steel
P1
58.1%
49.5%
P2
54.9%
47.5%
P3
53.9%
56.6%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
56.3%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:13 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 04:20 | Offensive | Sam Steel |