Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.0% vs Couturier 53.6% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 72.4%
Defensive zone
Couturier 71.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 54.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
O'Reilly
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
O'Reilly
Couturier
Last 6: O'Reilly 4-2 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Couturier
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Couturier
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Couturier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (856)
53.9% (792)
+1.8%
Power Play
57.5% (233)
62.9% (70)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (144)
51.3% (234)
-1.3%
On power play, Couturier has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
O'Reilly shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (696).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Couturier
Home
55.5% (616)
51.4% (541)
Away
55.3% (617)
56.4% (555)
By Period
O'Reilly
Couturier
P1
58.1%
56.0%
P2
54.9%
52.6%
P3
53.9%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
44.1%
Final 5 min
56.3%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 11:36 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 16:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 17:16 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |