Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pinto on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). O'Reilly wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pinto shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.0% vs Pinto 51.1% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Pinto leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Pinto 58.3%
Defensive zone
Pinto 89.0%
Neutral zone
Pinto 76.9%
Result
Shane Pinto favored at 83.4%
16.6%
83.4%
O'Reilly
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
O'Reilly
Pinto
Last 10: O'Reilly 3-7 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
0
1
O'Reilly
Pinto
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
1
7
O'Reilly
Pinto
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Pinto
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (856)
50.5% (556)
+5.2%
Power Play
57.5% (233)
68.0% (25)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (144)
51.1% (94)
-1.1%
On power play, Pinto has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
O'Reilly shoots left. Pinto is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Pinto
Home
55.5% (616)
50.0% (310)
Away
55.3% (617)
52.3% (365)
By Period
O'Reilly
Pinto
P1
58.1%
51.8%
P2
54.9%
49.8%
P3
53.9%
53.1%
OT
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
56.3%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Pinto
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 04:14 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 12:11 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 06:25 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:03 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |