Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Stützle shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.0% vs Stützle 52.6% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stützle 53.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 71.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
O'Reilly
Stützle
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
O'Reilly
Stützle
Last 7: O'Reilly 4-3 Stützle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stützle
0
1
O'Reilly
Stützle
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Stützle
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Stützle
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Stützle
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (856)
52.7% (501)
+3.0%
Power Play
57.5% (233)
54.2% (59)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (144)
56.3% (32)
-6.3%
On penalty kill, Stützle has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stützle shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
O'Reilly shoots left. Stützle is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Stützle
Home
55.5% (616)
51.9% (285)
Away
55.3% (617)
54.1% (307)
By Period
O'Reilly
Stützle
P1
58.1%
51.6%
P2
54.9%
55.4%
P3
53.9%
52.2%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.3%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Stützle
50.0%▬
49.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 05:09 | Neutral | Tim Stützle |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Tim Stützle |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 03:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 16:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:42 | Offensive | Tim Stützle |