Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 42 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Hertl 54.3% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 72-61 in 133 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 50.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 64.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 56.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
O'Reilly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
72
-
61
(133 meetings)
72
61
O'Reilly
Hertl
Last 10: O'Reilly 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
24
18
O'Reilly
Hertl
42 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
23
19
O'Reilly
Hertl
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
25
24
O'Reilly
Hertl
49 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,290)
53.9% (8,290)
+2.3%
Power Play
58.7% (3,457)
59.3% (1,991)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,826)
46.3% (806)
+5.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
O'Reilly shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,945).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Hertl
Home
57.6% (10,799)
55.8% (5,365)
Away
54.4% (10,807)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
O'Reilly
Hertl
P1
55.6%
53.6%
P2
57.0%
54.1%
P3
55.0%
55.3%
OT
62.2%
46.9%
Final 5 min
55.3%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 18:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 15:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 13:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 18:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 10:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 16:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 02:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 19:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 06:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 14:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 11:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 09:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |