Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 27 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Gourde 48.2% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 40-25 in 65 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 94.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 86.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 88.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 90.6%
90.6%
9.4%
O'Reilly
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
40
-
25
(65 meetings)
40
25
O'Reilly
Gourde
Last 10: O'Reilly 8-2 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
18
9
O'Reilly
Gourde
27 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
11
9
O'Reilly
Gourde
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
11
7
O'Reilly
Gourde
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,290)
48.4% (4,987)
+7.8%
Power Play
58.7% (3,457)
57.4% (376)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,826)
40.0% (555)
+11.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
O'Reilly shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,967).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Gourde
Home
57.6% (10,799)
49.3% (2,949)
Away
54.4% (10,807)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
O'Reilly
Gourde
P1
55.6%
49.8%
P2
57.0%
47.5%
P3
55.0%
47.5%
OT
62.2%
37.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 15:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 2 | 13:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 2 | 03:57 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 14:05 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 08:39 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 05:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 11:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 02:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:08 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 15:45 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |