Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 60.0% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 57.6% vs Smith 51.8% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 67.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 85.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 81.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 76.3%
76.3%
23.7%
O'Reilly
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
O'Reilly
Smith
Last 10: O'Reilly 6-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
1
O'Reilly
Smith
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Smith
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
O'Reilly
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (1,179)
53.5% (430)
+4.4%
Power Play
63.0% (292)
47.7% (65)
+15.3%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (320)
49.1% (114)
+4.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,095).
O'Reilly shoots left. Smith is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Smith
Home
61.3% (884)
54.0% (298)
Away
54.8% (907)
50.2% (311)
By Period
O'Reilly
Smith
P1
55.5%
55.4%
P2
61.0%
45.9%
P3
56.8%
54.6%
OT
67.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.6%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
58.0%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2017 | 3 | 08:32 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 1 | 16:46 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 1 | 15:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 1 | 09:12 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2017 | 2 | 16:13 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Feb 4, 2017 | 2 | 05:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 3 | 14:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 2 | 14:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 1 | 17:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |