Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 25 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Smith 50.6% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 37-28 in 65 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 89.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 64.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 82.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
O'Reilly
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
37
-
28
(65 meetings)
37
28
O'Reilly
Smith
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
16
9
O'Reilly
Smith
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
12
9
O'Reilly
Smith
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
9
10
O'Reilly
Smith
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,103)
51.6% (5,265)
+4.6%
Power Play
58.7% (3,395)
51.2% (342)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (2,769)
45.3% (985)
+6.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,728).
O'Reilly shoots left. Smith is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (4,205).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Smith
Home
57.6% (10,669)
52.5% (3,289)
Away
54.4% (10,631)
48.7% (3,310)
By Period
O'Reilly
Smith
P1
55.5%
49.9%
P2
57.0%
50.0%
P3
55.2%
51.9%
OT
62.7%
51.6%
Final 5 min
55.4%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2019 | 1 | 18:18 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 3 | 10:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 1 | 10:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 3 | 17:39 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 06:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 03:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 1 | 10:12 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Apr 4, 2018 | 3 | 17:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 4, 2018 | 2 | 00:30 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Apr 4, 2018 | 1 | 17:15 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 4, 2018 | 1 | 17:08 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Apr 4, 2018 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 3 | 08:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 2 | 16:25 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 2 | 10:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 2 | 02:20 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |