Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 16 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Poehling 48.3% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 20-8 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 93.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 65.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 74.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 83.6%
83.6%
16.4%
Larkin
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
8
(28 meetings)
20
8
Larkin
Poehling
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
14
2
Larkin
Poehling
16 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Poehling
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Poehling
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
49.6% (2,780)
+2.0%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
51.6% (93)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
41.7% (635)
+8.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Poehling is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,357).
Home / Away
Larkin
Poehling
Home
53.9% (6,277)
49.3% (1,706)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
47.2% (1,802)
By Period
Larkin
Poehling
P1
52.7%
50.8%
P2
53.1%
47.1%
P3
52.0%
47.2%
OT
58.4%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 14:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 04:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 15:55 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 11:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 05:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 14:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 11:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 03:36 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 14:37 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 1 | 07:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 08:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 19:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 06:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 06:49 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 1 | 15:38 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |