Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Poehling wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poehling 48.0% vs Monahan 52.5% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 82.7%
Defensive zone
Poehling 67.5%
Neutral zone
Monahan 53.8%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Poehling
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Poehling
Monahan
Last 5: Poehling 3-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Poehling
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
3
1
Poehling
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poehling
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (680)
53.0% (874)
-2.6%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
54.7% (161)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (219)
47.5% (101)
-8.7%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Poehling is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Poehling shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
Poehling
Monahan
Home
47.4% (422)
53.8% (558)
Away
48.1% (489)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Poehling
Monahan
P1
53.3%
49.5%
P2
40.3%
54.8%
P3
50.0%
52.8%
OT
40.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
52.3%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
47.7%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 15:41 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:15 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 04:31 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:43 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:16 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |