Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Bennett wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bennett 48.2% vs Hertl 57.5% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bennett 66.3%
Defensive zone
Bennett 69.7%
Neutral zone
Bennett 68.6%
Result
Sam Bennett favored at 67.5%
67.5%
32.5%
Bennett
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Bennett
Hertl
Last 8: Bennett 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Bennett
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
2
0
Bennett
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Bennett
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bennett
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (811)
58.7% (858)
-12.3%
Power Play
56.9% (153)
55.8% (285)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (46)
62.9% (35)
-15.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bennett is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (679).
Bennett shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Bennett
Hertl
Home
49.9% (553)
60.1% (599)
Away
45.7% (457)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Bennett
Hertl
P1
47.4%
52.4%
P2
46.8%
63.9%
P3
48.9%
58.5%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.4%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bennett
46.0%▼
51.0%
48.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 05:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 04:54 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 02:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 09:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 02:16 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:57 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 09:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 08:47 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |