Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.6% vs 55.0%). Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cizikas wins 54.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 53.9% vs Carrick 54.2% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cizikas 65.5%
Defensive zone
Carrick 60.5%
Neutral zone
Cizikas 52.0%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Cizikas
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cizikas
Carrick
Last 5: Cizikas 1-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
4
Cizikas
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cizikas
1
0
Cizikas
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (544)
55.5% (470)
-0.5%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
66.7% (3)
+33.3%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
50.0% (58)
-3.5%
On power play, Cizikas has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Cizikas is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (188).
Cizikas shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Carrick
Home
54.3% (291)
58.6% (261)
Away
54.8% (299)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Cizikas
Carrick
P1
58.3%
55.9%
P2
56.4%
53.5%
P3
49.8%
55.6%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
70.0%▲
60.5%
54.6%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 11:54 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 06:17 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 05:54 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 04:44 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |