Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Carrick wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 54.2% vs Kuraly 51.0% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 58.3%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 60.3%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 60.5%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Carrick
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Carrick
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
Carrick
Kuraly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Carrick
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (470)
52.6% (464)
+2.9%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
100.0% (1)
-33.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (58)
46.5% (155)
+3.5%
On power play, Kuraly has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Carrick shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (235).
Home / Away
Carrick
Kuraly
Home
58.6% (261)
55.9% (322)
Away
51.5% (270)
46.0% (298)
By Period
Carrick
Kuraly
P1
55.9%
55.9%
P2
53.5%
46.7%
P3
55.6%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.0%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 08:50 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 03:03 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |