Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 52.2% vs Aho 51.3% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 82.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 82.2%
Neutral zone
Carrick 54.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Carrick
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Carrick
Aho
Last 10: Carrick 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
7
Carrick
Aho
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
4
1
Carrick
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Carrick
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (2,544)
50.2% (6,646)
+2.0%
Power Play
61.3% (75)
58.9% (1,310)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (435)
46.5% (465)
+4.3%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Carrick shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Home / Away
Carrick
Aho
Home
51.5% (1,477)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
53.0% (1,577)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Carrick
Aho
P1
51.8%
51.1%
P2
52.3%
52.1%
P3
52.6%
50.8%
OT
50.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
49.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:26 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:14 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 18:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 12:02 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 08:58 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 11:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 16:16 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 15:25 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 10:07 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 06:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |