Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Carrick wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 54.2% vs Hertl 57.5% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 83.4%
Defensive zone
Carrick 87.2%
Neutral zone
Carrick 54.2%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Carrick
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Carrick
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Carrick
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
0
Carrick
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Carrick
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (470)
58.7% (858)
-3.2%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
55.8% (285)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (58)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Carrick shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Carrick
Hertl
Home
58.6% (261)
60.1% (599)
Away
51.5% (270)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Carrick
Hertl
P1
55.9%
52.4%
P2
53.5%
63.9%
P3
55.6%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:22 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 02:07 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 01:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |