Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (69% H2H, 16 meetings). Gagner wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gagner 46.0% vs Monahan 51.2% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 25-16 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Gagner 73.6%
Defensive zone
Gagner 77.7%
Neutral zone
Gagner 83.4%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 79.0%
79.0%
21.0%
Gagner
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
25
(41 meetings)
16
25
Gagner
Monahan
Last 10: Gagner 2-8 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
5
Gagner
Monahan
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
7
9
Gagner
Monahan
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
5
11
Gagner
Monahan
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gagner
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (4,699)
51.1% (11,407)
-5.7%
Power Play
51.5% (928)
53.6% (2,582)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (226)
45.9% (772)
-10.9%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Gagner is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,184).
Gagner shoots right. Monahan is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (5,426).
Home / Away
Gagner
Monahan
Home
48.7% (3,025)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
43.0% (2,843)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Gagner
Monahan
P1
44.6%
51.0%
P2
46.1%
51.7%
P3
47.3%
51.0%
OT
42.0%
53.5%
Final 5 min
45.4%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 11:39 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 3 | 10:03 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 17, 2017 | 2 | 14:05 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 17, 2017 | 2 | 12:34 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 17, 2017 | 1 | 07:14 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 17, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 1 | 00:06 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 3 | 14:35 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 19:36 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 1 | 16:04 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 1 | 15:53 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 1 | 10:46 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 1 | 02:33 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 2, 2014 | 3 | 17:50 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 2, 2014 | 3 | 14:18 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 2, 2014 | 3 | 10:45 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 2, 2014 | 1 | 03:05 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 29, 2014 | 3 | 17:11 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |