Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gagner 46.0% vs Connolly 47.3% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Connolly 50.9%
Defensive zone
Connolly 64.2%
Neutral zone
Connolly 56.7%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Gagner
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Gagner
Connolly
Last 5: Gagner 4-1 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Gagner
Connolly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
3
0
Gagner
Connolly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gagner
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (4,699)
47.4% (1,307)
-2.0%
Power Play
51.5% (928)
50.2% (251)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (226)
41.9% (186)
-6.9%
On penalty kill, Connolly has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Gagner is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,684).
Gagner shoots right. Connolly is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (576).
Home / Away
Gagner
Connolly
Home
48.7% (3,025)
48.5% (870)
Away
43.0% (2,843)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Gagner
Connolly
P1
44.6%
47.4%
P2
46.1%
47.7%
P3
47.3%
47.0%
OT
42.0%
37.8%
Final 5 min
45.4%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2012 | OT | 01:01 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 6, 2012 | 3 | 17:06 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 6, 2012 | 3 | 17:01 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 6, 2012 | 1 | 12:20 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 6, 2012 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |