Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Lafferty wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 47.5% vs Aho 51.3% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Lafferty 50.9%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 92.3%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 75.1%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Lafferty
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Lafferty
Aho
Last 10: Lafferty 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
6
Lafferty
Aho
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
2
1
Lafferty
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lafferty
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (1,417)
50.2% (6,646)
-2.3%
Power Play
45.7% (46)
58.9% (1,310)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (184)
46.5% (465)
-3.0%
On power play, Aho has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Lafferty is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Lafferty shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Aho
Home
47.3% (833)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
47.4% (814)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Lafferty
Aho
P1
49.4%
51.1%
P2
43.1%
52.1%
P3
49.6%
50.8%
OT
60.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
45.5%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.4%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 16:27 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2 | 08:18 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 01:27 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 03:52 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 16:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 16:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 02:29 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 06:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 03:07 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 08:56 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 06:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |