Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Reinhart wins 41.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Reinhart 43.3% vs Hertl 54.3% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 13-11 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Reinhart 64.9%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 63.7%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 65.2%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 64.6%
64.6%
35.4%
Reinhart
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
13
(24 meetings)
11
13
Reinhart
Hertl
Last 10: Reinhart 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Reinhart
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
5
3
Reinhart
Hertl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
6
Reinhart
Hertl
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Reinhart
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
42.5% (2,173)
53.9% (8,303)
-11.4%
Power Play
46.5% (525)
59.2% (1,995)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (339)
46.3% (806)
-5.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Reinhart is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,283).
Reinhart shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Reinhart
Hertl
Home
44.9% (1,528)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
41.2% (1,509)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Reinhart
Hertl
P1
44.5%
53.6%
P2
40.5%
54.2%
P3
44.5%
55.3%
OT
43.5%
46.9%
Final 5 min
42.1%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
43.1%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | 3 | 18:45 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 3 | 15:26 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 19, 2024 | OT | 03:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:38 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 07:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 1 | 16:06 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 16:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 06:35 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 15:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 01:04 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 16:00 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 19:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 19:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 07:34 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 17:05 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 09:49 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 12:54 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 03:56 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |