Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 44.6%). Look for Helenius on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Helenius 46.7% vs Thompson 45.2% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 65.6%
Defensive zone
Helenius 64.2%
Neutral zone
Helenius 54.2%
Result
Samuel Helenius favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
Helenius
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Helenius
Thompson
Last 5: Helenius 3-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Helenius
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Helenius
2
1
Helenius
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Helenius
1
0
Helenius
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Helenius
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (212)
44.6% (661)
+1.2%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
48.4% (95)
-48.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
33.3% (33)
-8.3%
On power play, Thompson has a +48.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Helenius is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (54).
Helenius shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Helenius
Thompson
Home
46.2% (104)
45.7% (411)
Away
44.2% (113)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Helenius
Thompson
P1
51.3%
47.7%
P2
38.6%
45.7%
P3
44.8%
40.5%
Final 5 min
36.6%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Helenius
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.2%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 17:35 | Neutral | Samuel Helenius |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 02:59 | Defensive | Samuel Helenius |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Samuel Helenius |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 11:59 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |