Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Couturier wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Couturier 53.6% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 61.0%
Defensive zone
Couturier 80.3%
Neutral zone
Couturier 57.8%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Couturier
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Couturier
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Couturier
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Couturier
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Couturier
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (792)
57.1% (368)
-3.2%
Power Play
62.9% (70)
55.2% (96)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
51.3% (234)
50.0% (10)
+1.3%
On power play, Couturier has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Couturier is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (395).
Couturier shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Couturier
Stamkos
Home
51.4% (541)
53.9% (230)
Away
56.4% (555)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Couturier
Stamkos
P1
56.0%
56.7%
P2
52.6%
54.1%
P3
54.3%
59.2%
OT
44.1%
62.5%
Final 5 min
55.3%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
53.9%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 14:09 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:16 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 01:18 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 12:36 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |