Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Couturier 53.6% vs Hertl 57.5% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Couturier leads 12-10 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 83.7%
Defensive zone
Couturier 77.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 61.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Couturier
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
10
(22 meetings)
12
10
Couturier
Hertl
Last 10: Couturier 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
7
Couturier
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
6
1
Couturier
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
4
2
Couturier
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Couturier
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (792)
58.7% (858)
-4.8%
Power Play
62.9% (70)
55.8% (285)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
51.3% (234)
62.9% (35)
-11.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (696).
Couturier shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Couturier
Hertl
Home
51.4% (541)
60.1% (599)
Away
56.4% (555)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Couturier
Hertl
P1
56.0%
52.4%
P2
52.6%
63.9%
P3
54.3%
58.5%
OT
44.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.3%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
53.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 19:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 18:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 13:29 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 12:29 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 04:07 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 18:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 10:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:00 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:06 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |